Here Comes Oscar

Tomorrow the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will announce nominations for the 83^rd Academy Awards, and for no good reason at all I will get up at the crack of dawn to watch them do it. 

I think it’s fun. Go figure.

So who’s got a shot at Oscar?  There are some obvious suspects in the Best Picture Category, specifically The Social Network, The King’s Speech, Inception, and Toy Story 3.  The last two will get in because they are precisely the sort of movies that the Academy had in mind when they expanded the field of Best Picture Nominees to ten.  Neither one will win; barring an enormous upset (and that wouldn’t be so bad, upsets make the awards interesting) either The King’s Speech or Social Network will get the award.  There is a lot of huffing and puffing today because the Producer’s Guild bucked the trend and honored King’s Speech for Best Picture instead of Social Network, but it’s still a toss-up between the two for Oscar gold.  The films that will be honored just to be nominated include True Grit, The Fighter, Black Swan, Winter’s Bone, The Kids Are All Right, and The Town, with any of the last three possibly vulnerable to a surge by 127 Hours.  I’m not feeling that, though; 127 Hours seems to have dropped under the radar and stayed there.

Best Actress: Natalie Portman will be nominated and surely win for Black Swan; Annette Bening will be gracious and say she is honored to be included in such a stellar group of actors – and it should be a stellar group.  If the youthful Academy voters have any influence, we will see nominations for Jennifer Lawrence for Winter’s Bone and Hailee Steinfield for True Grit.  Both of them are deserving and would get a boost from Oscar notice.  Nicole Kidman will probably nab the last spot for her performance in Rabbit Hole, even though no one is going to see it, but folks like Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine) and Julie Anne Moore (The Kids Are All Right) could slip in.  The Blue Valentine thing is kind of interesting, because in spite of the rave reviews Michelle Williams and Ryan Gosling received for their performances, neither one was nominated by the Screen Actors Guild.  Most prognosticators think that precludes them from an Oscar nom, since there is a lot of overlap between the Guild and members of the Academy’s Actors Branch.

Best Actor: Colin Firth will be nominated and win, with Jesse Eisenberg (Social Network), Jeff Bridges (True Grit) and James Franco (127 Hours) joining the crowd.  The last spot is up for grabs;  Mark Wahlberg (The Fighter) is a possibility along with Robert Duvall (Get Low) and Javier Bardim (Biutiful) in the mix.  But you can’t discount Ryan Gosling for Blue Valentine in spite of his SAG snub.  Could happen.  

As usual, the Best Supporting races have the most intrigue.  Hailee Steinfield  (True Grit) might end up in this category, even though most observers call her performance lead instead of supporting.  If she does, she will likely join Mellissa Leo (The Fighter), Helena Bonham Carter (King’s Speech), Amy Adams (The Fighter) and Mila Kunis (Black Swan).  This will edge out Jackie Weaver, who has received a lot of attention for her role in Animal Kingdom, an Australian film that didn’t get much big screen time.  Winner in this group is anybody’s guess. 

In the Supporting Actor category, expect Christian Bale to be nominated for The Fighter, as well as Geoffrey Rush for The King’s Speech.  One of these two will win.  Also likely: Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right), Jeremy Renner (The Town) and Andrew Garfield (Social Network).  There’s rumors of a late “surge” by Matt Damon for True Grit, but don’t bet on it. 

Those are the four major categories, the only other biggie is Best Director, which will likely include David Fincher (The Social Network,) Christopher Nolan (Inception), Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan), Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech), and David O. Russell (The Fighter) unless the Coen Brothers (True Grit) pop in and Knock out David O. Russell.  That doesn't look likely from here.

Mystery is over tomorrow morning. Mystery is over, and the over hype begins.  Oscar Season is on.