Oscar Predictions 2011

Tomorrow at around 5:40 Pacific time the first envelope will bet cracked open and we will learn who the Academy ultimately chose to award at the end of this endless award season. So what do we expect? Will the favorites win?


Here's the thing: Oscar prognostication is not an exact science - it's not a science at all. There are no exit polls; there is no Nate Silver with a team of lackeys calling Academy members to inquire as to their vote. The Academy really frowns on that sort of thing, so when people tell you they're predicting the Oscars they generally are guessing based on how many awards a film or artist has racked up so far, or they might be extrapolating from a conversation they had with someone who knows someone who actually voted, or maybe they are legitimate insiders who run the cocktail party circuit and talk about these things.


But, as screenwriter William Goldman famously said about people in Hollywood: No one knows anything. So, keeping that in mind, here are the latest rumors for the major Oscars:


Best Picture


Safe bet is still The King's Speech, but there is some talk that Social Network is staging a late rally. The assumption is that the geezers in the Academy went for King's Speech, while the younger set leaned Social Network. That would leave the decision in the hands of middle aged voters. How many of them are on Facebook?


Best Actor

Colin Firth will win this. There's no point in discussing it, although there are some sly critics handing the award to Jesse Eisenberg. I think they just want attention.


Best Actress


This one has been flip flopping between Annette Bening and Natalie Portman; Portman having won most of the earlier awards, and Bening having never won at all. Four nominations, no wins. Did the Academy go for sentiment? Doubt it. Portman will win.


Best Supporting Actor


Christian Bale, unless this is a really interesting night.

Best Supporting Actress

Again, a little excitement. Melissa Leo has won everything in the run up but her self promoting "For your Consideration" ads scuttled a lot of the community's respect. Could fourteen year old Hailee Steinfeld win? I think she could. On the other hand, Helena Bonham Carter won the BAFTA award for Best Supporting Actress and gave a terrific speech. Oscar voters like that sort of thing.


Best Director


Tom Hooper won the DGA award for King's Speech, and if the film is sweeping along he might be the winner. But there are plenty of folks who see David Fincher getting this for Social Network, even if his film doesn't get the big prize. This could be a tie breaker in the Oscar poll vote, but I'd go with Fincher.


Best Adapted Screenplay


Aaron Sorkin, Social Network. No point in discussing the other nominees. This script is so celebrated that you can download it now, if you just want to gaze at the words on the page. (For the record, I thought the writing in Social Network was terrific. I will probably download the script.)


Best Original Screenplay


Inception fans, this is your shot. Will Chris Nolan get some Oscar love? I'm saying no. This one will likely go to David Seidler for The King's Speech. Hey, it's a sweep.

Unknown

Unknown - Warner Bros

Unknown is a flashy action thriller, full of twists and turns and lots of car chases; since the film is set in Berlin it is mostly Mercedes doing all the chasing, and who knew those staid old cars could careen around corners like that? And take a bullet -- many, many bullets, right through the hood, and the engines just keep roaring.

Liam Neeson is a professor of biotechnology, come to town to deliver a paper at splashy biotech conference, very high profile because a Saudi Prince will be in attendance to promote a top secret project that might end world hunger. Prince Shada has been the target of assassination attempts -- there are bad guys opposed to ending world hunger, if they can still make a buck off starving people – so security is tight and press coverage intense.

But Dr. Martin Harris has a mishap: he is in a terrible car accident and falls into a coma for days. When he wakes up, no one seems to know who he is, including his wife Liz (January Jones). Slipping out of the hospital against his doctor’s orders, Martin tracks her down at a formal event, trailed by outraged hotel security. Perfectly coiffed and stunning in an elegant black gown, she looks right at him and says, without emotion, “I don’t know this man.” Then she calls over another guy (Aidan Quinn) and introduces him as Dr. Martin Harris.

Well, what a pickle! Martin half believes his brain was broken in the car wreck, but then an assassin starts to trail him and he figures that, whatever is going on, he isn’t imagining it. He can’t remember much about the events that led up to the car accident, but he does recall the young cab driver (Diane Kruger) who was at the wheel -- she heroically saved his life -- so he tracks her down and they team up to solve the mystery. (As cab driver Gina, an Eastern European illegal trying to stay under German police radar, Kruger is spunky and resourceful, shielding a luminous innocence behind cautious reserve. She and Neeson pair up nicely.)

There are twists and turns and twists in this film, the action is well paced and there are plenty of edge- of-your-seat moments. It doesn’t break any new ground or explore any deeper issues, but it’s a lot of fun. Rated PG-13 for “violence and action, and brief sexual content,” and while there is a lot of gunfire, there isn’t much actual bloodshed, so if that sort of thing makes you squeamish you should be okay. Unknown was the box office champ in its opening weekend, but that isn’t saying much because hardly anyone went to the movies. Still playing everywhere. B-

Oscar Countdown

The Oscar race kicked itself into high gear when the nominations were announced last month, and then quickly slid into dull predictability. Right now you could get a better argument out of who will come in second in most of the major races than who will win the gold.

Current list of favorites:

Best Picture: King’s Speech

Best Actor: Colin Firth

Best Actress: Natalie Portman 

Nothing wrong with any of these shoo ins, especially Natalie Portman, who did terrific work in a strange and challenging film. Seems to me when an actress takes chances like she did they should get some notice for it. I also have no issue with Colin Firth: he’s a great actor who has been ignored by the Academy because he’s played romantic leads a lot; it’s been good for Darcy fans but not so much for Mr. Firth’s hopes for serious acting accolades.

The Best Picture thing is the most predictable of all, the conventional wisdom being that Oscar voters can’t resist a royal drama with English accents. Now, that’s all very well if we’re a bunch of dizzy colonists, but here in the western outpost of the New World you might think that an American film or two could get some traction. Social Network enjoyed enormous hype and excellent reviews back in the fall, but it seems to be suffering a bit of backlash; some people say it was overrated, but I think it made too big of a splash too early and now it’s just worn out its welcome.

It would be pretty cool if Social Network scored an Oscar upset. It would be even cooler if Black Swan did. Not much likelihood either way, though. King’s Speech is it.

Possible toss ups:

Best Director: Tom Hooper (King’s Speech) or David Fincher (Social Network) 

All along the assumption has been that Fincher would take this. He’s a respected American director with a slew of great films to his credit, most of them too strange and scary to attract much Oscar attention. But Tom Hooper won the Directors Guild award, and the DGA winner frequently (not always – check with Spielberg) goes on to win the Oscar. Still, most prognosticators (and bookies) call this one a toss up.

Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale (Fighter) or Geoffrey Rush (King’s Speech) 

Christian Bale has won pretty much every available award in this category, but if there is a King’s Speech sweep he could get pushed out of contention. Rush was excellent, but he has won before and Academy voters are known to honor rookies in supporting categories.

Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo (Fighter) or Hailee Stanfield (True Grit)

This is the only category where anything interesting is happening. Hailee Steinfeld was widely considered a possible Best Actress contender; the combination of her supporting status and the fact that True Grit has ten nominations could push her to the top of this heap. Not a big chance of that, but there is a bit of momentum going her way.

That’s the big six. Oscar Ballots are due two weeks from today so, if anything is going to shift, it’s got to happen soon.