Oscar Predictions 2011

Tomorrow at around 5:40 Pacific time the first envelope will bet cracked open and we will learn who the Academy ultimately chose to award at the end of this endless award season. So what do we expect? Will the favorites win?


Here's the thing: Oscar prognostication is not an exact science - it's not a science at all. There are no exit polls; there is no Nate Silver with a team of lackeys calling Academy members to inquire as to their vote. The Academy really frowns on that sort of thing, so when people tell you they're predicting the Oscars they generally are guessing based on how many awards a film or artist has racked up so far, or they might be extrapolating from a conversation they had with someone who knows someone who actually voted, or maybe they are legitimate insiders who run the cocktail party circuit and talk about these things.


But, as screenwriter William Goldman famously said about people in Hollywood: No one knows anything. So, keeping that in mind, here are the latest rumors for the major Oscars:


Best Picture


Safe bet is still The King's Speech, but there is some talk that Social Network is staging a late rally. The assumption is that the geezers in the Academy went for King's Speech, while the younger set leaned Social Network. That would leave the decision in the hands of middle aged voters. How many of them are on Facebook?


Best Actor

Colin Firth will win this. There's no point in discussing it, although there are some sly critics handing the award to Jesse Eisenberg. I think they just want attention.


Best Actress


This one has been flip flopping between Annette Bening and Natalie Portman; Portman having won most of the earlier awards, and Bening having never won at all. Four nominations, no wins. Did the Academy go for sentiment? Doubt it. Portman will win.


Best Supporting Actor


Christian Bale, unless this is a really interesting night.

Best Supporting Actress

Again, a little excitement. Melissa Leo has won everything in the run up but her self promoting "For your Consideration" ads scuttled a lot of the community's respect. Could fourteen year old Hailee Steinfeld win? I think she could. On the other hand, Helena Bonham Carter won the BAFTA award for Best Supporting Actress and gave a terrific speech. Oscar voters like that sort of thing.


Best Director


Tom Hooper won the DGA award for King's Speech, and if the film is sweeping along he might be the winner. But there are plenty of folks who see David Fincher getting this for Social Network, even if his film doesn't get the big prize. This could be a tie breaker in the Oscar poll vote, but I'd go with Fincher.


Best Adapted Screenplay


Aaron Sorkin, Social Network. No point in discussing the other nominees. This script is so celebrated that you can download it now, if you just want to gaze at the words on the page. (For the record, I thought the writing in Social Network was terrific. I will probably download the script.)


Best Original Screenplay


Inception fans, this is your shot. Will Chris Nolan get some Oscar love? I'm saying no. This one will likely go to David Seidler for The King's Speech. Hey, it's a sweep.