Oscar! again

Just when you think you know which way the Oscar wind blows, SAG comes along and changes the weather. Up until last weekend, the shoo ins for Oscar’s Best Actress and Actor were Kate Winslet and Mickey Rourke, but then the Screen Actors Guild chose Meryl Streep and Sean Penn, and handed Winslet the Best Supporting prize for The Reader. So now, depending on who you talk to (and, really, I don’t talk to anyone, I hang out on my computer) Mickey Rourke and Sean Penn are neck and neck for Best Actor, or Rourke is just out of the running. The latter assumes that Oscar voters are turned off by the gritty intensity of The Wrestler, but they like the whole Yes We Can thing that goes on in Milk.

At scene-stealers.com they are keeping a running total of all the critics and guild awards that people get at the end of the year; whoever gets the most of those, they figure, will probably win Oscar. By that system Penn is ahead of Rourke by one award, Heath Ledger has no competition for Best Supporting Actor, and Sally Hawkins will win for Best Actress. Interesting, since she wasn’t nominated. Say, there’s an organization called “Film Critics of Central Ohio” that selected Melissa Leo for Best Actress. How many film critics do you think there are in Central Ohio? If I lived in Central Ohio, I would join that group, and I would vote for Melissa Leo.

Slumdog remains the front runner for Best Pic, some observers think because it is a “feel good’ movie, and to those people I say, “Did you see Slumdog?” There’s brutality and tragedy and poverty and some really trite gangster scenes. They do dance, Bollywood style, on the train platform in the end. That's pretty upbeat stuff.

So, to wrap up: Slumdog for Best Pic, followed by Ben Button and Milk. Penn and Rourke tops for Best Actor. Winslet for Best Actress, except for Streep and, making a late run, Anne Hathaway (possible beneficiary of a split between the first two). Supporting Actor, Heath Ledger, Supporting Actress – look out, could be a surprise on this one. Maybe Viola Davis, for twelve minutes of screen time in Doubt.

Ballots due in February 17.