Oscar Tea Leaves: 26 Days Out

There are nine movies nominated in the Oscar Best Picture race, but only five matter: The Artist, The Descendants, The Help, Hugo and Moneyball all have a shot, although Moneyball barely makes the list, even though it was an early fave.  Here’s the thing:  Descendants and The Artist picked up awards at the Golden Globes, which should make them front runners, but The Help got the nod at the SAG Awards, and the Directors Guild gave it up for The Artist’s Michel Hazanavicius.  These are confusing times.


The people who actually bet on these things have The Artist and The Descendents fighting it out for frontrunner and Hugo and The Help battling for second place.  None of the other pictures matter, at least as far as winning goes. 


So what will happen?  Well, it’s early yet.  Final Oscar ballots get mailed out tomorrow, but they aren’t due back at the Academy until February 21st.  Meanwhile, it seems the buzz for The Artist is wearing a little thin.  Will the Academy stick with it for the big prize, or give The Descendants the nod?  Or could they surprise us for the first time in years and let something like Hugo float to the top?If I were betting today, I would go with The Artist.  In two weeks, though, things could look different.  Stay tuned.