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Can I predict ‘em, or what? Actually there were two big surprises at the Oscars this year: Dragon Tattoo’s win for best editing (well deserved) and Meryl Streep’s Best Actress score. Everyone’s talking about Meryl this morning, and why not, as recently as Friday the odds of picking up a trophy were trending against her. But the Actors Branch of the Academy, which seemed, after the SAG awards, determined to make The Help cast its fave, either mellowed towards Streep or was outvoted by the other Branches, because there she was, accepting the award with all the charm and presence we would expect from our most celebrated actress.
The return of Billy Crystal in the hosting role was pleasant, but not invigorating; Billy did what Billy does. There were some entertaining moments – Christopher Guest’s focus group, Emma Stone’s funny and charming bit where she attempted to find ways to extend her time on stage as a presenter. (Ben Stiller made a perfect foil.) Angelina Jolie’s apparent effort to strike a “sexy pose” by thrusting her leg through a thigh high slit in her Versace dress wasn’t so appealing. It’s hard to guess what the actress had in mind when she did that – reminding the crowd that she’s still the good time gal who made headlines in the nineties? Trying to divert the spotlight from her life partner? Just trying to divert the spotlight? Jolie seems to want to be taken seriously – she just wrote and directed a film about the Bosnian war – but this stunt might indicate that the 37 year old is not ready to grow up. Fortunately, her little move was counter balanced by the Descendants writing team when they picked up their award; two of the three men struck the same pose as Angelina. That was funny.
All in all, the 84th Academy Awards were not memorable. Of the nine films nominated, only one (The Help) qualified as a hit, and hardly anyone has seen Best Picture winner The Artist. Ratings were down, due to awards season fatigue, and general lack of interest. Seems like the old white dudes who are responsible for Oscar Outcomes have lost step with America; maybe they should pay attention to the underlying message of last night’s show, and get out occasionally to see a movie.
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| Rocky won the Oscar. |
The votes are in, the accountants are counting, and the winners of the biggest show biz contest are just a few days away from glowing in the spotlight.
So who will get the prize? Well, the predictable awards are still predictable: Octavia Spencer (The Help) and Christopher Plummer (Beginners) will take home the Supporting trophies; screenplay awards will go to Midnight in Paris (Original) and The Descendants (Adapted).
Best Director looks like Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist, but there is some momentum for Scorsese and Hugo. Not a lot of momentum, but some. Hey, it's Scorsese, all those old white dudes in the Academy love Scorsese. Some of the creative awards come down to these two films as well: Art Direction and Cinematography will probably go to Hugo, but their chances could get mowed down by an Artist juggernaut. Film Editing is leaning Artist. In the sound categories it's Scorsese up against Spielberg (War Horse) with Scorsese predicted to pull out the win. Spielberg, I'm sure, is honored to be nominated. (Well, it's not him, really, it's his sound guys who are nominated but these guys take everything personally.)
The only really interesting contests are in the Best Actor and Best Actress categories. George Clooney (Descendants) and Jean Dujardin (Artist) have been battling it out during the awards season, each of them picking up trophies, so there's no clear front runner, although the safe money is on Dujardin. Some risk taking prognosticators are betting that Clooney and Dujardin will split the vote and Brad Pitt (Moneyball) will slip in and take the prize. Pitt might also have some sentimental momentum because he hasn't won before (nominated twice), and apparently he was quite the charmer on the awards circuit.
The actress contest comes down to Viola Davis (The Help) and Meryl Streep (Iron Lady). Like the actors, Streep and Davis have split a lot of the early awards, but the current front runner is clearly Davis - she gave a bang up performance, the film was a box office hit, and there is a sense that the left leaning (mostly white) Academy likes the idea of giving the award to a black actress. But there is a little awkwardness around Streep, since even though she has been nominated more times - 17! - than any other human, she has only won twice, and it's been awhile since her name was inside the envelope. This thing could go her way.
Finally, Best Picture: any Oscarologist looking over your shoulder while you fill out your office pool ballot would tell you to check The Artist for the top prize, and that is far and away the safest choice. The only possible spoiler in this contest is the fact that there are eight other pictures in contention, enough to screw up the numbers even for an established front runner. Here's how the counting works: The Academy members are asked to rank their choices for Best Picture by preference - this year, that'll be one through nine (this is the only category where voters rank their choices; for everything else, they check their favorite and move along). The fine young accountants at PricewaterhouseCoopers take those ballots and stack them in piles according to the number one pick. Then they take the shortest pile and redistribute those according to the second ranked film on each ballot, and they keep on doing that, redistributing the smallest pile, until one film has fifty percent of the votes. So it's not just who loves you best that matters, it's also who loves you second and third best. Other contenders for the throne are The Help and Hugo, with former front runner The Descendants bringing up the dark horse rear. The Oscars will be telecast on Sunday, February 26; the actual show begins at 5:30 but there will be televised hoopla for most of the day.
There are nine movies nominated in the Oscar Best Picture race, but only five matter: The Artist, The Descendants, The Help, Hugo and Moneyball all have a shot, although Moneyball barely makes the list, even though it was an early fave. Here’s the thing: Descendants and The Artist picked up awards at the Golden Globes, which should make them front runners, but The Help got the nod at the SAG Awards, and the Directors Guild gave it up for The Artist’s Michel Hazanavicius. These are confusing times.
The people who actually bet on these things have The Artist and The Descendents fighting it out for frontrunner and Hugo and The Help battling for second place. None of the other pictures matter, at least as far as winning goes.
So what will happen? Well, it’s early yet. Final Oscar ballots get mailed out tomorrow, but they aren’t due back at the Academy until February 21st. Meanwhile, it seems the buzz for The Artist is wearing a little thin. Will the Academy stick with it for the big prize, or give The Descendants the nod? Or could they surprise us for the first time in years and let something like Hugo float to the top?If I were betting today, I would go with The Artist. In two weeks, though, things could look different. Stay tuned.
It's been a busy couple of days on the awards circuit, the Gotham Independent Spirit Awards revealing themselves last night, the New York Film Critics announcing their year end picks as well, and today the West Coast Independent Spirit folks put out their list of nominees. Put it all together and what have you got: well, The Artist, certainly. A big hit at Cannes, but playing only an extremely limited run (four theaters so far) here at home, this film is a serious critical darling but hasn't yet had a chance to prove itself among regular folks. Another small film, Take Shelter, got attention from these organizations, both for Best Picture and for lead actor Michael Shannon. But Take Shelter is a dark story with an ambivalent ending, an unlikely film to get mixed up in the big leagues, although Shannon could get a nod for acting. Brad Pitt got noticed by the New York film Critics for his performance in Moneyball; this relatively small crowd of writers also chose Meryl Streep as Best Actress in Iron Lady. Neither one of these films would get noticed by the Independent Spirit folks, who leave any big studio film out of their considerations, but certainly this is a clue that Pitt and Streep will get attention from Oscar (and the Screen Actors Guild, and the Golden Globes). Jessica Chastain also got some love for her performances in (take your pick) Tree of Life, Take Shelter and The Help. She has had a busy year, and will no doubt have a lot of red carpet walks in the next few months.
But, award hopes aside, all these picks and nominations can provide some film going direction. In the next month, there should be some high quality movies at the multiplex. Look for Iron Lady, and The Artist, although The Artist is more likely to show up in art houses. Spielberg's War Horse, a World War I story, is getting lots of buzz (it is a Spielberg film) and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo should make a splash, although it's bound to be a brutal, bloody one. Tinker Taylor Soldier Spy, a thriller based on a John LeCarre novel, is getting positive reviews from the handful of critics who have seen it, and Young Adult, a story about a morally ambivalent woman (Charlize Theron) who returns to her high school reunion determined to rip her old boyfriend away from his wife and family, is generating some good acting kudos. Extremely Loud and Terribly Close, based on a novel about a boy whose father died in the Towers on 9/11 and left a mysterious key behind, is getting a lot of buzz even though no one (really, no one) has seen it yet. Some bold prognosticators are even calling it for Best Picture. Back in the real world, look for The Descendants, whose Oscar hopes are rosy because of its solid box office and loving critical reviews. It's also a good film and still in theaters. My Week with Marilyn is also getting attention for Michelle Williams' performance. Too soon to tell how any of these will fare come awards times, but they should provide some good movie going entertainment. More awards insight and prognosticating as the story unfolds.
The big opening of the weekend is Breaking Dawn – Part 1, and if you are on Team Edward or Team Jacob (no one seems to need a Team Bella) you are already in line for the midnight show. Good for you, but keep me out of it. I am hoping to miss this one. I’m not sure what I dread most: Kristen Stewart’s sourpuss face, Edward Pattinson’s steely blankness, or Tyler Lautner’s wholesale abandoning of any nascent acting talent in exchange for flashing his abs. It all depresses me, and we haven’t even arrived at the bizarre birth scene. Oops! Spoiler alert. The other big opening is Happy Feet 2, an animated tap dancing penguin movie. Early reviews are mixed, but it looks like a solid family film.
More highbrow, The Descendants opens this weekend in a handful of theaters; this is one of the best reviewed films of the fall, definite Oscar bait. George Clooney stars as an absentee dad who has to step up his parenting game when his wife is injured and falls into a coma.
Held over are a number of biggies: Adam Sandler’s Jack and Jill, Tower Heist and The Immortals. You might be wise to skip all of those but if you are in the mood for a big Hollywood movie, Tower Heist is a better bet than the other two. Unless you absolutely love Adam Sandler, and, just a tip, the membership of that club appears to be dwindling. Jack and Jill had a disappointing opening weekend and critics really hated the film. On the other hand, people who showed up liked it well enough.
If you happen to live in a city with an art house scene, look for a film called Like Crazy. This charming, unexpected and extremely well done love story is one of the best films out right now.
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