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| Rocky won the Oscar. |
The votes are in, the accountants are counting, and the winners of the biggest show biz contest are just a few days away from glowing in the spotlight.
So who will get the prize? Well, the predictable awards are still predictable: Octavia Spencer (The Help) and Christopher Plummer (Beginners) will take home the Supporting trophies; screenplay awards will go to Midnight in Paris (Original) and The Descendants (Adapted).
Best Director looks like Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist, but there is some momentum for Scorsese and Hugo. Not a lot of momentum, but some. Hey, it's Scorsese, all those old white dudes in the Academy love Scorsese. Some of the creative awards come down to these two films as well: Art Direction and Cinematography will probably go to Hugo, but their chances could get mowed down by an Artist juggernaut. Film Editing is leaning Artist. In the sound categories it's Scorsese up against Spielberg (War Horse) with Scorsese predicted to pull out the win. Spielberg, I'm sure, is honored to be nominated. (Well, it's not him, really, it's his sound guys who are nominated but these guys take everything personally.)
The only really interesting contests are in the Best Actor and Best Actress categories. George Clooney (Descendants) and Jean Dujardin (Artist) have been battling it out during the awards season, each of them picking up trophies, so there's no clear front runner, although the safe money is on Dujardin. Some risk taking prognosticators are betting that Clooney and Dujardin will split the vote and Brad Pitt (Moneyball) will slip in and take the prize. Pitt might also have some sentimental momentum because he hasn't won before (nominated twice), and apparently he was quite the charmer on the awards circuit.
The actress contest comes down to Viola Davis (The Help) and Meryl Streep (Iron Lady). Like the actors, Streep and Davis have split a lot of the early awards, but the current front runner is clearly Davis - she gave a bang up performance, the film was a box office hit, and there is a sense that the left leaning (mostly white) Academy likes the idea of giving the award to a black actress. But there is a little awkwardness around Streep, since even though she has been nominated more times - 17! - than any other human, she has only won twice, and it's been awhile since her name was inside the envelope. This thing could go her way.
Finally, Best Picture: any Oscarologist looking over your shoulder while you fill out your office pool ballot would tell you to check The Artist for the top prize, and that is far and away the safest choice. The only possible spoiler in this contest is the fact that there are eight other pictures in contention, enough to screw up the numbers even for an established front runner. Here's how the counting works: The Academy members are asked to rank their choices for Best Picture by preference - this year, that'll be one through nine (this is the only category where voters rank their choices; for everything else, they check their favorite and move along). The fine young accountants at PricewaterhouseCoopers take those ballots and stack them in piles according to the number one pick. Then they take the shortest pile and redistribute those according to the second ranked film on each ballot, and they keep on doing that, redistributing the smallest pile, until one film has fifty percent of the votes. So it's not just who loves you best that matters, it's also who loves you second and third best. Other contenders for the throne are The Help and Hugo, with former front runner The Descendants bringing up the dark horse rear. The Oscars will be telecast on Sunday, February 26; the actual show begins at 5:30 but there will be televised hoopla for most of the day.
There are nine movies nominated in the Oscar Best Picture race, but only five matter: The Artist, The Descendants, The Help, Hugo and Moneyball all have a shot, although Moneyball barely makes the list, even though it was an early fave. Here’s the thing: Descendants and The Artist picked up awards at the Golden Globes, which should make them front runners, but The Help got the nod at the SAG Awards, and the Directors Guild gave it up for The Artist’s Michel Hazanavicius. These are confusing times.
The people who actually bet on these things have The Artist and The Descendents fighting it out for frontrunner and Hugo and The Help battling for second place. None of the other pictures matter, at least as far as winning goes.
So what will happen? Well, it’s early yet. Final Oscar ballots get mailed out tomorrow, but they aren’t due back at the Academy until February 21st. Meanwhile, it seems the buzz for The Artist is wearing a little thin. Will the Academy stick with it for the big prize, or give The Descendants the nod? Or could they surprise us for the first time in years and let something like Hugo float to the top?If I were betting today, I would go with The Artist. In two weeks, though, things could look different. Stay tuned.
It's been a busy couple of days on the awards circuit, the Gotham Independent Spirit Awards revealing themselves last night, the New York Film Critics announcing their year end picks as well, and today the West Coast Independent Spirit folks put out their list of nominees. Put it all together and what have you got: well, The Artist, certainly. A big hit at Cannes, but playing only an extremely limited run (four theaters so far) here at home, this film is a serious critical darling but hasn't yet had a chance to prove itself among regular folks. Another small film, Take Shelter, got attention from these organizations, both for Best Picture and for lead actor Michael Shannon. But Take Shelter is a dark story with an ambivalent ending, an unlikely film to get mixed up in the big leagues, although Shannon could get a nod for acting. Brad Pitt got noticed by the New York film Critics for his performance in Moneyball; this relatively small crowd of writers also chose Meryl Streep as Best Actress in Iron Lady. Neither one of these films would get noticed by the Independent Spirit folks, who leave any big studio film out of their considerations, but certainly this is a clue that Pitt and Streep will get attention from Oscar (and the Screen Actors Guild, and the Golden Globes). Jessica Chastain also got some love for her performances in (take your pick) Tree of Life, Take Shelter and The Help. She has had a busy year, and will no doubt have a lot of red carpet walks in the next few months.
But, award hopes aside, all these picks and nominations can provide some film going direction. In the next month, there should be some high quality movies at the multiplex. Look for Iron Lady, and The Artist, although The Artist is more likely to show up in art houses. Spielberg's War Horse, a World War I story, is getting lots of buzz (it is a Spielberg film) and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo should make a splash, although it's bound to be a brutal, bloody one. Tinker Taylor Soldier Spy, a thriller based on a John LeCarre novel, is getting positive reviews from the handful of critics who have seen it, and Young Adult, a story about a morally ambivalent woman (Charlize Theron) who returns to her high school reunion determined to rip her old boyfriend away from his wife and family, is generating some good acting kudos. Extremely Loud and Terribly Close, based on a novel about a boy whose father died in the Towers on 9/11 and left a mysterious key behind, is getting a lot of buzz even though no one (really, no one) has seen it yet. Some bold prognosticators are even calling it for Best Picture. Back in the real world, look for The Descendants, whose Oscar hopes are rosy because of its solid box office and loving critical reviews. It's also a good film and still in theaters. My Week with Marilyn is also getting attention for Michelle Williams' performance. Too soon to tell how any of these will fare come awards times, but they should provide some good movie going entertainment. More awards insight and prognosticating as the story unfolds.
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| Fox Searchlight |
Good movie. George Clooney stars as Matt King, a disconnected dad who has to step up his parenting game when a boating accident leaves his wife in a coma. His two daughters, ten and seventeen, are mysteries to him, but he’s a essentially a warmhearted guy, giving the unexpected dad thing his best shot until older daughter Alex (played with beautiful authenticity by Shailene Woodley) hits him with a bombshell: his comatose wife has been having an affair. “She was cheating on you, Dad,” Alex tells him, in a matter of fact tone that is only a little impatient, as though this huge development in his marriage was something she pretty much expected him to miss. But once the news is out Matt is galvanized into action, collaborating with Alex to track his wife’s lover down – determined to confront the guy, wanting to see his face when he learns that the woman he has been dallying with is at death’s door.
Obviously there is a dark side to all of this, but writer/director Alexander Payne (Sideways) teases the humor out of the drama, and George Clooney gamely allows himself to appear foolish, letting go of his leading man suave to look believably awkward when he peers over a hedge trying to spot his wife’s mystery man, or races in flip flops to his neighbors’ house to demand the truth about the affair. The film lingers a little too lightly on the real pain at the heart of this story, skims over the tough stuff, but we still feel enormous sympathy for the characters and keep pulling for them. With Robert Forster doing great work as the dying woman’s father, and young Nick Krause providing welcome comic relief as Alex’s friend. Playing a relatively small run (433 theaters) throughout the country but it’s doing good business and should expand. Lots of Oscar buzz. B+
I am a big fan of summer blockbusters. I like the comic book heroes and the grand battles between good and evil where good always wins and evil is defeated in a humorously ironic way.
But once Labor Day rolls around, I’m ready for something a little more thought provoking.
Which makes this fall oddly disappointing. It had a promising start, lots of hype about the great films on the horizon, but so far only Moneyball has hit the mark. Like a lot of critics, I was hoping for a little more depth from Drive and more complexity from the Ides of March; both films were well made and entertaining, but neither one could be called a great movie.
So we look forward. This weekend Martha Marcy May Marlene opens, featuring what is promised to be a stunning performance by Olsen twins sibling Elizabeth. Filmmaker Sean Durkin also won the top directing prize at Sundance. Lots of buzz on this one.
After that there is a bit of a wait before the next hyped picture arrives. J Edgar, a biopic about the controversial FBI chief comes out on November 9 in the big markets; Leo DiCaprio takes the title role, and this one has Oscar written all over it. Also in November look for The Descendents: George Clooney stars as an absentee dad who has to step up when his wife has an accident and slips into a coma. From the trailer this looks like a standard family crisis drama but, unlike Ides of March, it persistently shows up in the Best Picture conversation. The Artist opens on Thanksgiving weekend; it’s a black and white not-quite-silent picture about the advent of talking films. Screened at Cannes to wild enthusiasm.
Other possibilities include War Horse, a Spielberg picture that comes out at the very end of the year, barely making the cut off for awards consideration; it’s a World War I (that’s one, not two) movie about a horse and the kid who loves him. Okay, it’s probably more complicated than that, but it hasn’t been screened yet so nobody knows. There is also a film version of Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, based on one of the very first novels to set in post 9/11 New York. Also opens late December. The American version of Girl with the Dragon Tattoo looks like it’s meant for mass market pop culture consumption, but Academy voters are keeping it in mind because of Director David Fincher's pedigree (he directed Social Network). As the eponymous Girl, Rooney Mara is also expected to snag a best actress nod.
But she’ll be competing with the Grande Dame of Oscar nominees, Meryl Streep, who is expected to blow out the competition with her performance as Maggie Thatcher in Iron Lady. If there’s a lock in this awards season, old Meryl is probably it.
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